On one hand, a case can be made for rising stock values. Companies in America are sitting on historically high levels of cash, they have less debt and profits have risen to a respectable level in general. These sound like signs of strength.
On the other hand, a case can be built that the world is falling into chaos. Europe is on the brink of collapse, the Middle East may be one bomb away from creating World War III and U.S. deficits continue to grow without a plan on repayment or sustainability.
The answer will unfold, and we may get clarity by the end of this year as the Eurozone is trying to get its act together and the elections in the U.S. get behind us. But there will be new concerns. There is always something different that gives investors a chance to worry and then use those fears to drive their investment decisions.
There are two sides to every coin. Some look at these concerns and cite them as the reason to avoid investing. Others know that most investments go up and down, and that an investment that has performed poorly may become an asset to own again.
As new situations unfold, there are two major considerations for investors.
The first is to ask if that event or situation that disrupted the markets is temporary. If it is permanent, such as the automobile making horse carriages obsolete, then you would be wise to avoid an investment in horse carriages. If it is temporary, such as a credit crisis that stalls auto and home sales, there is likely to come a time when the disruption is so severe that a buying opportunity presents itself.
The second major consideration is that of diversification. Of course, diversification is no guarantee that losses will be mitigated or that gains may be better. But proper diversification will give you exposure to other asset classes that may behave differently during similar circumstances.
They say that history repeats itself because nobody remembers what happened last time. And while markets will always have some sort of irrational behavior, they are no more irrational than the decisions made by investors when markets are in disarray.
John P. Napolitano is CEO of U.S. Wealth Management in Braintree, Mass., and 2012 president of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts. He may be reached at jnap@uswealthcompanies.com or on Facebook as JohnPNapolitano and US Wealth
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